Mental Model: Booms, Busts & Fragile Systems

What I hope to collect here is a collection of resources that handle the historical representation of the booms and busts of fragile financial systems.

Articles & presentations

Who´s Holding the Bag” by Pershing Square Capital Management (May 2007)

The Age of Balance Sheet Recessions: What Post-2008 U.S., Europe and China Can Learn from Japan 1990-2005” by Richard Koo (2010)

Chapter 2. The Souk and the Office Building, an Introduction to the Intervention Bias” by Nassim Taleb (a draft from 2011)

Tipping Points: Annual Report 2010-2011” by the Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilence (features a historical data on banking system failures)

The Fat Pitch” by (August, 2001)

A Template for Understanding What’s Going On” by Ray Dalio


Has Financial Development made the World Riskier?” by Raghuram G. Rajan (2005)

This time is different: An example of a giant, wildly speculative, and successful investment mania” by Andrew Odlyzko (2010)

The collapse of the Railway Mania, the development of capital markets, and Robert Lucas Nash, a forgotten pioneer of accounting and financial analysis” by Andrew Odlyzko (2011)

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